Setting description

Equal randomization: Niraparib more effective in the DRD+ biomarker signature (cfr scen 6)

Simulations setting

PFS distributions


Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
–+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-+- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
-++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1
+– param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+-+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
++- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
+++ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43


By signature:

signature var Other Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
TP53- param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
TP53+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72
DRD+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.012, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 74.3, median = 60.7
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.9, hr = 0.43
TEfus+ param scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.024, shape = 1.3 scale = 0.018, shape = 1.3
summary mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 39, median = 31.9 mean = 50.5, median = 41.2
effect af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1, hr = 1 af = 1.29, hr = 0.72

Errors and power


graduation (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 7 14 87
TP53- 10 12 131
TP53+ 13 15 113
DRD+ 2 14 402
TEfus+ 8 10 97
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.014 0.028 0.174
TP53- 0.020 0.024 0.262
TP53+ 0.026 0.030 0.226
DRD+ 0.004 0.028 0.804
TEfus+ 0.016 0.020 0.194
futility (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 45 48 1
TP53- 227 195 31
TP53+ 186 206 20
DRD+ 177 160 1
TEfus+ 183 181 17
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.090 0.096 0.002
TP53- 0.454 0.390 0.062
TP53+ 0.372 0.412 0.040
DRD+ 0.354 0.320 0.002
TEfus+ 0.366 0.362 0.034
max sample size (counts and proportions):
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0 0 0
TP53- 78 84 83
TP53+ 8 12 9
DRD+ 0 0 0
TEfus+ 0 0 0
Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all 0.000 0.000 0.000
TP53- 0.156 0.168 0.166
TP53+ 0.016 0.024 0.018
DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000
TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000


Errors & power

The overall error was 0.278.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.078             0.104             0.116

The overall power was 0.804.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies         Niraparib 
            0.000             0.000             0.804

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:
signature var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all graduation 0 7 14 87
futility 0 45 48 1
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 536 (458, 594) 348 (190, 548) 355 (165, 532) 410 (209, 535)
n_unique 536 (458, 594) 348 (190, 548) 355 (165, 532) 410 (209, 535)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (56, 60) 60 (47, 60) 60 (34, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 28 (11, 51) 24 (9, 56) 30 (13, 51)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.09, 0.87) 0.45 (0.07, 0.9) 0.96 (0.69, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.02, 0.024) 0.021 (0.019, 0.025) 0.018 (0.016, 0.02)
TP53- graduation 0 10 12 131
futility 0 227 195 31
max_n 0 78 84 83
n 292 (245, 330) 216 (57, 301) 225 (61, 302) 235 (76, 302)
n_unique 292 (245, 330) 216 (57, 301) 225 (61, 302) 235 (76, 302)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (15, 60) 60 (16, 60) 60 (24, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 23 (13, 50) 24 (13, 49) 31 (15, 50)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.44 (0.08, 0.88) 0.45 (0.08, 0.89) 0.92 (0.54, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.019, 0.023) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.025) 0.018 (0.016, 0.02)
TP53+ graduation 0 13 15 113
futility 0 186 206 20
max_n 0 8 12 9
n 241 (200, 290) 176 (56, 264) 172 (54, 262) 193 (67, 262)
n_unique 241 (200, 290) 176 (56, 264) 172 (54, 262) 193 (67, 262)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (18, 60) 60 (17, 60) 60 (25, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 25 (15, 51) 27 (15, 52) 30 (15, 52)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.49 (0.09, 0.88) 0.46 (0.1, 0.9) 0.88 (0.47, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.022 (0.019, 0.026) 0.018 (0.016, 0.021)
DRD+ graduation 0 2 14 402
futility 0 177 160 1
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 144 (97, 182) 86 (50, 167) 89 (48, 163) 83 (50, 137)
n_unique 144 (97, 182) 86 (50, 167) 89 (48, 163) 83 (50, 137)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (27, 60) 60 (28, 60) 41 (25, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 33 (22, 54) 33 (23, 51) 37 (25, 53)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.08, 0.85) 0.46 (0.1, 0.87) 1 (0.99, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.025) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.01 (0.008, 0.012)
TEfus+ graduation 0 8 10 97
futility 0 183 181 17
max_n 0 0 0 0
n 196 (154, 233) 118 (52, 205) 122 (51, 213) 147 (61, 203)
n_unique 196 (154, 233) 118 (52, 205) 122 (51, 213) 147 (61, 203)
time_trial 60 (60, 60) 60 (22, 60) 60 (21, 60) 60 (31, 60)
time_stop NA (NA, NA) 29 (18, 53) 28 (18, 51) 34 (20, 55)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.08, 0.86) 0.46 (0.08, 0.87) 0.93 (0.56, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.017 (0.014, 0.02)


By subgroup combinations:
subtype var Control Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
— graduation 0 248 231 200
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 78 83 83
n 160 (129, 197) 126 (31, 170) 133 (34, 173) 140 (43, 181)
n_unique 160 (129, 197) 126 (31, 170) 133 (34, 173) 140 (43, 181)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.45 (0.08, 0.88) 0.46 (0.1, 0.87) 0.48 (0.12, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.018, 0.024) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.021 (0.018, 0.025)
–+ graduation 0 313 305 247
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 75 79 78
n 48 (32, 62) 26 (10, 52) 30 (9, 54) 39 (12, 59)
n_unique 48 (32, 62) 26 (10, 52) 30 (9, 54) 39 (12, 59)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.5 (0.14, 0.87) 0.52 (0.13, 0.87) 0.5 (0.14, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.022 (0.016, 0.032) 0.021 (0.016, 0.029)
-+- graduation 0 211 242 175
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 12 9
n 100 (77, 132) 84 (24, 111) 80 (23, 108) 87 (29, 119)
n_unique 100 (77, 132) 84 (24, 111) 80 (23, 108) 87 (29, 119)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.53 (0.13, 0.86) 0.51 (0.1, 0.9) 0.52 (0.12, 0.9)
rate 0.021 (0.017, 0.025) 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.021 (0.017, 0.028) 0.021 (0.017, 0.026)
-++ graduation 0 306 315 225
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 7 10 9
n 78 (53, 101) 48 (17, 83) 46 (16, 85) 64 (19, 97)
n_unique 78 (53, 101) 48 (17, 83) 46 (16, 85) 64 (19, 97)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.46 (0.12, 0.85) 0.46 (0.11, 0.88) 0.47 (0.11, 0.87)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.026) 0.022 (0.017, 0.028) 0.022 (0.017, 0.029) 0.022 (0.017, 0.027)
+– graduation 0 317 313 409
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 76 81 70
n 41 (24, 55) 24 (8, 50) 26 (8, 49) 23 (10, 42)
n_unique 41 (24, 55) 24 (8, 50) 26 (8, 49) 23 (10, 42)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.43 (0.1, 0.81) 0.45 (0.11, 0.8) 0.96 (0.75, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.027) 0.022 (0.016, 0.031) 0.022 (0.015, 0.031) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
+-+ graduation 0 357 352 417
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 73 77 67
n 39 (20, 55) 20 (8, 49) 21 (8, 51) 23 (9, 42)
n_unique 39 (20, 55) 20 (8, 49) 21 (8, 51) 23 (9, 42)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.09, 0.81) 0.41 (0.1, 0.81) 0.96 (0.75, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.016, 0.028) 0.022 (0.016, 0.034) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.01 (0.006, 0.015)
++- graduation 0 301 324 450
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 8 12 9
n 32 (17, 44) 21 (7, 41) 19 (7, 40) 17 (8, 32)
n_unique 32 (17, 44) 21 (7, 41) 19 (7, 40) 17 (8, 32)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.41 (0.11, 0.83) 0.45 (0.11, 0.82) 0.94 (0.7, 1)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.029) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.022 (0.014, 0.032) 0.01 (0.005, 0.015)
+++ graduation 0 356 369 459
futility 0 0 0 0
max_n 0 7 10 9
n 31 (15, 45) 17 (7, 39) 16 (6, 38) 17 (8, 32)
n_unique 31 (15, 45) 17 (7, 39) 16 (6, 38) 17 (8, 32)
post_p NA (NA, NA) 0.42 (0.13, 0.8) 0.43 (0.11, 0.82) 0.93 (0.64, 0.99)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.029) 0.022 (0.015, 0.033) 0.022 (0.014, 0.034) 0.01 (0.005, 0.017)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates


Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 7 14 87
time_stop 11 (9, 13) 16 (8, 55) 31 (14, 51)
n_trt 76 (69, 100) 126 (58, 426) 217 (102, 381)
n_control 85 (71, 98) 126 (59, 465) 256 (103, 452)
post_p 0.94 (0.9, 0.96) 0.97 (0.89, 1) 0.99 (0.92, 1)
order 1 (1, 1) 1 (1, 3.4) 2 (1, 4)
TP53- count 10 12 131
time_stop 22 (14, 51) 23 (13, 52) 33 (17, 51)
n_trt 93 (56, 221) 76 (52, 263) 148 (60, 238)
n_control 92 (51, 208) 112 (54, 241) 159 (69, 262)
post_p 0.94 (0.89, 0.98) 0.96 (0.92, 0.98) 0.98 (0.94, 1)
order 1 (1, 2.1) 1 (1, 2) 2 (1, 4)
TP53+ count 13 15 113
time_stop 36 (18, 58) 37 (21, 57) 34 (18, 53)
n_trt 136 (56, 295) 122 (66, 221) 108 (56, 196)
n_control 133 (63, 277) 124 (77, 242) 126 (65, 224)
post_p 0.98 (0.93, 1) 0.98 (0.96, 1) 0.98 (0.94, 1)
order 1 (1, 4) 2 (1, 4.2) 2 (1, 3)
DRD+ count 2 14 402
time_stop 37 (32, 42) 35 (24, 58) 37 (25, 53)
n_trt 72 (66, 78) 71 (51, 125) 82 (52, 130)
n_control 79 (69, 89) 80 (57, 149) 91 (52, 136)
post_p 1 (1, 1) 0.98 (0.95, 1) 1 (0.96, 1)
order 2.5 (2.1, 2.9) 2 (1, 3) 1 (1, 2)
TEfus+ count 8 10 97
time_stop 30 (17, 58) 33 (20, 55) 39 (22, 55)
n_trt 74 (51, 135) 94 (56, 227) 107 (57, 169)
n_control 116 (47, 195) 94 (57, 221) 127 (59, 195)
post_p 0.97 (0.9, 0.99) 0.98 (0.95, 1) 0.98 (0.94, 1)
order 1.5 (1, 3) 2.5 (1, 3.1) 3 (1, 5)
Futility:
signature var Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Niraparib
all count 45 48 1
time_stop 34 (16, 51) 29 (9, 55) 8 (8, 8)
n_trt 194 (115, 332) 166 (64, 316) 68 (68, 68)
n_control 272 (124, 473) 234 (72, 452) 52 (52, 52)
post_p 0.04 (0.01, 0.13) 0.07 (0.01, 0.14) 0.04 (0.04, 0.04)
order 4 (1, 7) 3 (1, 7) 1 (1, 1)
TP53- count 227 195 31
time_stop 23 (13, 49) 24 (13, 49) 17 (12, 30)
n_trt 98 (53, 214) 103 (57, 215) 76 (53, 132)
n_control 99 (51, 238) 107 (50, 225) 72 (51, 126)
post_p 0.14 (0.04, 0.26) 0.14 (0.05, 0.25) 0.18 (0.08, 0.27)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 1 (1, 3)
TP53+ count 186 206 20
time_stop 25 (15, 48) 26 (15, 51) 17 (13, 31)
n_trt 87 (52, 176) 86 (52, 174) 56 (50, 101)
n_control 86 (50, 187) 92 (50, 196) 65 (35, 108)
post_p 0.16 (0.04, 0.26) 0.15 (0.04, 0.25) 0.14 (0.08, 0.26)
order 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 5) 2 (1, 3)
DRD+ count 177 160 1
time_stop 33 (22, 54) 33 (23, 49) 27 (27, 27)
n_trt 61 (50, 108) 64 (51, 107) 58 (58, 58)
n_control 84 (45, 128) 78 (51, 135) 54 (54, 54)
post_p 0.15 (0.04, 0.26) 0.15 (0.03, 0.27) 0.22 (0.22, 0.22)
order 3 (1, 5) 3 (1, 5) 1 (1, 1)
TEfus+ count 183 181 17
time_stop 29 (18, 53) 28 (18, 50) 22 (19, 27)
n_trt 74 (51, 143) 71 (51, 128) 61 (52, 76)
n_control 90 (50, 169) 85 (46, 180) 65 (48, 91)
post_p 0.16 (0.04, 0.27) 0.14 (0.05, 0.25) 0.14 (0.04, 0.27)
order 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 6) 3 (1, 5)


By subgroup combinations

Graduation:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
time 11 (9, 13) 11 (9, 13) 11 (9, 13) 11 (9, 13) 11 (9, 13) 11 (9, 13) 11 (9, 13) 11 (9, 13)
n 24 (22, 28) 6 (4, 11) 16 (10, 21) 13 (8, 16) 9 (4, 10) 6 (4, 11) 5 (3, 5) 3 (2, 6)
post_p 0.66 (0.58, 0.79) 0.63 (0.56, 0.71) 0.64 (0.57, 0.74) 0.64 (0.59, 0.72) 0.58 (0.57, 0.71) 0.6 (0.57, 0.62) 0.6 (0.56, 0.64) 0.57 (0.56, 0.64)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0 (0, 0) 0.011 (0, 0.013) 0 (0, 0.007) 0 (0, 0.005) 0 (0, 0.022) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
Taxel_therapies count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
time 16 (8, 55) 16 (8, 55) 16 (8, 55) 16 (8, 55) 16 (8, 55) 16 (8, 55) 16 (8, 55) 16 (8, 55)
n 34 (19, 120) 10 (3, 32) 20 (11, 85) 16 (10, 56) 8 (5, 44) 8 (2, 29) 8 (4, 28) 10 (2, 24)
post_p 0.62 (0.57, 0.83) 0.66 (0.57, 0.85) 0.7 (0.57, 0.9) 0.61 (0.55, 0.8) 0.63 (0.58, 0.73) 0.63 (0.57, 0.83) 0.64 (0.58, 0.8) 0.6 (0.57, 0.8)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0, 0.02) 0 (0, 0.02) 0.006 (0, 0.019) 0.011 (0, 0.022) 0 (0, 0.019) 0 (0, 0.018) 0 (0, 0.015) 0 (0, 0.015)
Niraparib count 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 87
time 31 (14, 51) 31 (14, 51) 31 (14, 51) 31 (14, 51) 31 (14, 51) 31 (14, 51) 31 (14, 51) 31 (14, 51)
n 69 (28, 127) 18 (9, 38) 42 (17, 80) 29 (13, 62) 16 (7, 30) 15 (5, 31) 13 (6, 26) 12 (5, 22)
post_p 0.7 (0.56, 0.92) 0.67 (0.57, 0.87) 0.68 (0.57, 0.91) 0.7 (0.57, 0.88) 0.77 (0.58, 0.97) 0.78 (0.59, 0.98) 0.79 (0.59, 0.94) 0.8 (0.59, 0.97)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.007, 0.02) 0.013 (0, 0.021) 0.016 (0.005, 0.023) 0.013 (0, 0.021) 0.007 (0, 0.013) 0.006 (0, 0.014) 0.005 (0, 0.012) 0.005 (0, 0.013)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 10 10 10 10
time 22 (14, 51) 22 (14, 51) 22 (14, 51) 22 (14, 51)
n 44 (31, 124) 18 (8, 32) 16 (6, 41) 12 (10, 38)
post_p 0.73 (0.71, 0.92) 0.74 (0.67, 0.88) 0.7 (0.63, 0.83) 0.75 (0.65, 0.84)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.008, 0.019) 0.004 (0, 0.015) 0.007 (0, 0.015) 0.006 (0, 0.017)
Taxel_therapies count 12 12 12 12
time 23 (13, 52) 23 (13, 52) 23 (13, 52) 23 (13, 52)
n 43 (27, 143) 14 (9, 35) 10 (7, 38) 12 (6, 43)
post_p 0.84 (0.76, 0.88) 0.75 (0.64, 0.88) 0.73 (0.62, 0.84) 0.72 (0.66, 0.79)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.01 (0.005, 0.02) 0.006 (0, 0.015) 0.008 (0, 0.018) 0.009 (0, 0.015)
Niraparib count 131 131 131 131
time 33 (17, 51) 33 (17, 51) 33 (17, 51) 33 (17, 51)
n 80 (35, 137) 25 (9, 42) 18 (8, 29) 18 (7, 35)
post_p 0.78 (0.71, 0.93) 0.74 (0.7, 0.9) 0.84 (0.7, 0.98) 0.86 (0.69, 0.98)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.006, 0.019) 0.012 (0, 0.019) 0.006 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.013)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 13 13 13 13
time 36 (18, 58) 36 (18, 58) 36 (18, 58) 36 (18, 58)
n 57 (26, 128) 39 (16, 96) 22 (8, 36) 19 (10, 36)
post_p 0.76 (0.71, 0.9) 0.82 (0.77, 0.95) 0.74 (0.67, 0.88) 0.76 (0.63, 0.85)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.006, 0.019) 0.012 (0.008, 0.018) 0.015 (0.001, 0.018) 0.015 (0.008, 0.018)
Taxel_therapies count 15 15 15 15
time 37 (21, 57) 37 (21, 57) 37 (21, 57) 37 (21, 57)
n 48 (26, 97) 48 (18, 72) 14 (8, 33) 12 (10, 32)
post_p 0.79 (0.7, 0.92) 0.89 (0.76, 0.98) 0.73 (0.69, 0.81) 0.74 (0.7, 0.86)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.015 (0.007, 0.021) 0.012 (0.005, 0.018) 0.013 (0, 0.021) 0.011 (0.003, 0.017)
Niraparib count 113 113 113 113
time 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53) 34 (18, 53)
n 46 (25, 88) 33 (16, 64) 13 (7, 26) 13 (6, 24)
post_p 0.79 (0.71, 0.92) 0.77 (0.71, 0.91) 0.82 (0.7, 0.95) 0.82 (0.63, 0.98)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.015 (0.007, 0.02) 0.014 (0.006, 0.02) 0.006 (0, 0.012) 0.006 (0, 0.012)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 2 2 2 2
time 37 (32, 42) 37 (32, 42) 37 (32, 42) 37 (32, 42)
n 16 (10, 21) 20 (14, 26) 16 (14, 18) 20 (17, 24)
post_p 0.77 (0.74, 0.81) 0.79 (0.74, 0.83) 0.88 (0.84, 0.92) 0.83 (0.76, 0.9)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.014 (0.012, 0.016) 0.014 (0.012, 0.016) 0.014 (0.011, 0.016) 0.009 (0.009, 0.01)
Taxel_therapies count 14 14 14 14
time 35 (24, 58) 35 (24, 58) 35 (24, 58) 35 (24, 58)
n 20 (11, 43) 19 (10, 40) 19 (9, 29) 12 (8, 24)
post_p 0.76 (0.72, 0.95) 0.77 (0.67, 0.89) 0.78 (0.7, 0.84) 0.74 (0.67, 0.85)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.006, 0.015) 0.014 (0.005, 0.018) 0.009 (0.002, 0.02) 0.011 (0.006, 0.018)
Niraparib count 402 402 402 402
time 37 (25, 53) 37 (25, 53) 37 (25, 53) 37 (25, 53)
n 23 (12, 39) 23 (11, 39) 17 (10, 30) 17 (9, 31)
post_p 0.83 (0.72, 0.98) 0.84 (0.71, 0.98) 0.81 (0.71, 0.96) 0.79 (0.7, 0.97)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.008 (0, 0.013) 0.007 (0, 0.014)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 8 8 8 8
time 30 (17, 58) 30 (17, 58) 30 (17, 58) 30 (17, 58)
n 17 (8, 28) 26 (15, 64) 16 (5, 24) 10 (7, 30)
post_p 0.76 (0.63, 0.85) 0.77 (0.72, 0.84) 0.78 (0.68, 0.91) 0.69 (0.64, 0.76)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.011 (0.005, 0.019) 0.012 (0.008, 0.016) 0.009 (0, 0.017) 0.017 (0, 0.021)
Taxel_therapies count 10 10 10 10
time 33 (20, 55) 33 (20, 55) 33 (20, 55) 33 (20, 55)
n 18 (11, 62) 47 (23, 82) 16 (8, 46) 16 (8, 43)
post_p 0.82 (0.71, 0.89) 0.77 (0.72, 0.91) 0.79 (0.74, 0.84) 0.76 (0.66, 0.9)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.008 (0, 0.018) 0.012 (0.008, 0.017) 0.011 (0, 0.017) 0.01 (0, 0.017)
Niraparib count 97 97 97 97
time 39 (22, 55) 39 (22, 55) 39 (22, 55) 39 (22, 55)
n 28 (10, 46) 40 (22, 67) 22 (11, 39) 15 (9, 25)
post_p 0.75 (0.69, 0.93) 0.76 (0.7, 0.9) 0.85 (0.71, 0.98) 0.84 (0.71, 0.98)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.014 (0.005, 0.02) 0.014 (0.008, 0.02) 0.008 (0, 0.014) 0.007 (0, 0.014)
Futility:
signature treatment var — –+ -+- -++ +– +-+ ++- +++
all Hormone_therapies count 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
time 34 (16, 51) 34 (16, 51) 34 (16, 51) 34 (16, 51) 34 (16, 51) 34 (16, 51) 34 (16, 51) 34 (16, 51)
n 54 (29, 112) 18 (8, 31) 38 (17, 72) 23 (13, 58) 15 (6, 32) 14 (5, 27) 10 (6, 25) 10 (6, 21)
post_p 0.29 (0.09, 0.46) 0.36 (0.11, 0.48) 0.26 (0.09, 0.45) 0.29 (0.15, 0.49) 0.33 (0.14, 0.48) 0.36 (0.18, 0.48) 0.28 (0.11, 0.47) 0.35 (0.2, 0.48)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.018, 0.027) 0.023 (0.015, 0.036) 0.023 (0.016, 0.031) 0.024 (0.019, 0.034) 0.021 (0.012, 0.035) 0.023 (0.014, 0.038) 0.026 (0.016, 0.052) 0.023 (0.013, 0.038)
Taxel_therapies count 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
time 29 (9, 55) 29 (9, 55) 29 (9, 55) 29 (9, 55) 29 (9, 55) 29 (9, 55) 29 (9, 55) 29 (9, 55)
n 52 (19, 91) 12 (6, 27) 30 (14, 75) 23 (11, 46) 12 (4, 26) 13 (5, 21) 10 (5, 20) 9 (4, 20)
post_p 0.33 (0.1, 0.45) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.31 (0.12, 0.47) 0.34 (0.1, 0.47) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49) 0.37 (0.13, 0.47) 0.34 (0.18, 0.48) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.018, 0.028) 0.025 (0.016, 0.049) 0.022 (0.018, 0.03) 0.023 (0.016, 0.037) 0.022 (0, 0.037) 0.023 (0.01, 0.047) 0.023 (0.012, 0.051) 0.024 (0.009, 0.047)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
time 8 (8, 8) 8 (8, 8) 8 (8, 8) 8 (8, 8) 8 (8, 8) 8 (8, 8) 8 (8, 8) 8 (8, 8)
n 24 (24, 24) 2 (2, 2) 13 (13, 13) 10 (10, 10) 7 (7, 7) 4 (4, 4) 2 (2, 2) 6 (6, 6)
post_p 0.21 (0.21, 0.21) 0.42 (0.42, 0.42) 0.46 (0.46, 0.46) 0.28 (0.28, 0.28) 0.43 (0.43, 0.43) 0.44 (0.44, 0.44) 0.49 (0.49, 0.49) 0.28 (0.28, 0.28)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.032 (0.032, 0.032) 0 (0, 0) 0.017 (0.017, 0.017) 0.046 (0.046, 0.046) 0.029 (0.029, 0.029) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0.107 (0.107, 0.107)
TP53- Hormone_therapies count 227 227 227 227
time 23 (13, 49) 23 (13, 49) 23 (13, 49) 23 (13, 49)
n 54 (28, 123) 16 (9, 35) 14 (7, 32) 14 (7, 29)
post_p 0.31 (0.09, 0.47) 0.37 (0.13, 0.48) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.36 (0.14, 0.47)
r_prob 0.37 (0.37, 0.37) 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.026) 0.022 (0.014, 0.036) 0.022 (0.013, 0.038) 0.022 (0.013, 0.036)
Taxel_therapies count 195 195 195 195
time 24 (13, 49) 24 (13, 49) 24 (13, 49) 24 (13, 49)
n 57 (30, 118) 16 (8, 36) 14 (7, 32) 14 (7, 30)
post_p 0.32 (0.12, 0.47) 0.37 (0.15, 0.48) 0.36 (0.15, 0.47) 0.34 (0.13, 0.48)
r_prob 0.25 (0.25, 0.25) 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.027) 0.023 (0.013, 0.037) 0.022 (0.011, 0.037) 0.022 (0.011, 0.04)
Niraparib count 31 31 31 31
time 17 (12, 30) 17 (12, 30) 17 (12, 30) 17 (12, 30)
n 43 (29, 72) 13 (8, 24) 11 (6, 18) 11 (7, 27)
post_p 0.32 (0.18, 0.48) 0.37 (0.21, 0.47) 0.4 (0.23, 0.48) 0.4 (0.33, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.02 (0.015, 0.027) 0.027 (0.017, 0.044) 0.02 (0.012, 0.034) 0.015 (0, 0.031)
TP53+ Hormone_therapies count 186 186 186 186
time 25 (15, 48) 25 (15, 48) 25 (15, 48) 25 (15, 48)
n 36 (20, 75) 26 (15, 59) 11 (6, 26) 10 (6, 24)
post_p 0.32 (0.13, 0.47) 0.38 (0.14, 0.48) 0.35 (0.15, 0.47) 0.38 (0.15, 0.49)
r_prob 0.18 (0.18, 0.18) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.015, 0.03) 0.022 (0.014, 0.032) 0.022 (0.013, 0.042) 0.022 (0.013, 0.042)
Taxel_therapies count 206 206 206 206
time 26 (15, 51) 26 (15, 51) 26 (15, 51) 26 (15, 51)
n 38 (20, 82) 25 (14, 56) 12 (6, 23) 11 (6, 23)
post_p 0.35 (0.09, 0.48) 0.32 (0.12, 0.47) 0.36 (0.16, 0.49) 0.34 (0.11, 0.48)
r_prob 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.031) 0.021 (0.015, 0.034) 0.022 (0.011, 0.042) 0.025 (0.014, 0.044)
Niraparib count 20 20 20 20
time 17 (13, 31) 17 (13, 31) 17 (13, 31) 17 (13, 31)
n 27 (19, 45) 17 (13, 30) 8 (5, 14) 9 (5, 15)
post_p 0.34 (0.17, 0.46) 0.32 (0.16, 0.45) 0.34 (0.19, 0.44) 0.4 (0.23, 0.49)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.021 (0.011, 0.031) 0.023 (0.013, 0.031) 0.023 (0.015, 0.047) 0.021 (0.013, 0.056)
DRD+ Hormone_therapies count 177 177 177 177
time 33 (22, 54) 33 (22, 54) 33 (22, 54) 33 (22, 54)
n 18 (9, 37) 18 (9, 33) 15 (8, 26) 14 (7, 24)
post_p 0.34 (0.11, 0.47) 0.33 (0.11, 0.47) 0.32 (0.11, 0.45) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.013, 0.033) 0.023 (0.015, 0.037) 0.022 (0.015, 0.036) 0.023 (0.013, 0.036)
Taxel_therapies count 160 160 160 160
time 33 (23, 49) 33 (23, 49) 33 (23, 49) 33 (23, 49)
n 20 (10, 36) 17 (10, 30) 14 (7, 27) 13 (7, 28)
post_p 0.34 (0.12, 0.46) 0.29 (0.1, 0.47) 0.36 (0.15, 0.48) 0.34 (0.1, 0.47)
r_prob 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.021 (0.014, 0.032) 0.023 (0.016, 0.035) 0.021 (0.014, 0.034) 0.023 (0.015, 0.041)
Niraparib count 1 1 1 1
time 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27) 27 (27, 27)
n 23 (23, 23) 13 (13, 13) 9 (9, 9) 13 (13, 13)
post_p 0.33 (0.33, 0.33) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0.34 (0.34, 0.34) 0.25 (0.25, 0.25)
r_prob 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.018 (0.018, 0.018) 0.027 (0.027, 0.027) 0.014 (0.014, 0.014) 0.015 (0.015, 0.015)
TEfus+ Hormone_therapies count 183 183 183 183
time 29 (18, 53) 29 (18, 53) 29 (18, 53) 29 (18, 53)
n 17 (10, 38) 28 (18, 63) 15 (8, 30) 12 (7, 25)
post_p 0.36 (0.12, 0.48) 0.34 (0.15, 0.48) 0.34 (0.13, 0.47) 0.36 (0.14, 0.48)
r_prob 0.19 (0.19, 0.19) 0.12 (0.12, 0.12) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.021 (0.015, 0.031) 0.022 (0.014, 0.037) 0.023 (0.013, 0.04)
Taxel_therapies count 181 181 181 181
time 28 (18, 50) 28 (18, 50) 28 (18, 50) 28 (18, 50)
n 18 (9, 37) 26 (15, 58) 15 (8, 30) 12 (6, 23)
post_p 0.38 (0.13, 0.48) 0.33 (0.1, 0.47) 0.36 (0.16, 0.47) 0.37 (0.13, 0.49)
r_prob 0.38 (0.38, 0.38) 0.41 (0.41, 0.41) 0 (0, 0) 0 (0, 0)
rate 0.023 (0.015, 0.036) 0.022 (0.015, 0.034) 0.021 (0.014, 0.033) 0.023 (0.013, 0.04)
Niraparib count 17 17 17 17
time 22 (19, 27) 22 (19, 27) 22 (19, 27) 22 (19, 27)
n 15 (12, 20) 22 (17, 31) 12 (7, 19) 9 (6, 16)
post_p 0.25 (0.1, 0.45) 0.31 (0.14, 0.44) 0.4 (0.26, 0.48) 0.46 (0.35, 0.48)
r_prob 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.06 (0.06, 0.06) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5) 0.5 (0.5, 0.5)
rate 0.03 (0.018, 0.039) 0.025 (0.019, 0.032) 0.02 (0.012, 0.03) 0.015 (0.011, 0.026)